Is Stephen Colbert the next Substack star?

YouTube, Amazon, where does he go next?

We’re still absorbing the shock of CBS pulling the plug on late night’s highest rated show—a move like this that hasn’t been done in my lifetime. Meanwhile, we’ve got to wonder: what’s next for Stephen Colbert?

Bad AI art of Stephen Colbert talking into a USB mic at home

The host of the Late Show will be out of a job in May when his contract runs out, CBS announced this week, saying late night has changed and that the show was too expensive to continue. Many people are declining to take CBS at its word, and think it’s really a political decision, due to Colbert’s needling of the president.

Late night ad revenues have fallen greatly, as the relevance of the nightly talk show host commenting on the news and interviewing stars in today’s world just ain’t what it used to be. The show reportedly cost $100 million yearly to produce, and CBS was in the red to the tune of $40 million.

Meanwhile, Colbert is way too popular and talented to just disappear.

So what are his options? Another network? Podcasts, Substack, YouTube, satellite radio, Netflix? Let’s dive in.

Substack

We can chalk off the idea of going to NBC, ABC or Fox for a similar late-night show, as those days seem long gone.

When CNN’s Jim Acosta and ABC’s Terry Moran lost their gigs, they went straight to Substack, the provider of this newsletter, to continue earning a living. Acosta quickly pulled in over 300,000 subscribers, and Moran 118,000 subs. For Acosta, who’s been at it longer, he’s also got over 10,000 paying monthly to watch his online videos, which is worth $1 million yearly. Take this for what it’s worth, but per the Daily Mail, Acosta was being paid anywhere from $700,000 to $2 million at CNN, so he’s either making as much as he did before, or half as much.

More importantly, he gets to keep his name out there and do what he loves doing, which I believe for Acosta, and Colbert, is way more important than money.

Netflix/Amazon/Apple TV+

Does Netflix, Amazon or Apple TV + swoop in and ask Colbert to continue his show for the streamer? On one hand, that would seem to be a given sense, since Colbert is such a huge brand name.

The only snag is that most of Netflix’s attempts at talk shows have failed, because the shelf life of topical humor is one day. Colbert’s predecessor, David Letterman, has a little talked about occasional talk show on Netflix, and John Mulaney has been at it since March with a weekly show that’s more about hot topics than jokes. Chelsea Handler, Hasan Minhaj, Michelle Wolf and Norm McDonald all tried talk shows that failed on Netflix, because the on-demand model is so different from analog TV.

Hulu could call—but its track record with live talk shows also isn’t good (Sarah Silverman tried and failed there) Apple TV+ failed with a Jon Stewart talk show, which frankly was way too political and just not funny—and the politics rubbed Apple the wrong way.

HBO Max wouldn’t give him a $100 million budget to produce a show, but if it can pay for Bill Maher, it could certainly room for Colbert.

Back to Plan B

So what if Netflix and/or HBO doesn’t call? Then what? Colbert was being paid $15 million yearly by CBS (on par with what NBC and ABC pay their late night hosts) and the first question, before he figures out how to connect his iPhone to the computer and start live streaming is—would 10,000 people pay him $8 monthly—that’s $1 million yearly—to tell jokes and/or interview people online, on Substack?

That’s the format that has been replicated on Substack’s live shows: they’re mostly political chat shows. Chris Matthews has even revived his old MSNBC “Hardball” show for Substack.

My guess is someone of Colbert’s stature and talent could easily pull this off, if he wanted to, with much higher numbers. Why not a daily monologue talking direct to the camera from his backyard?

However, what if Colbert wanted to go beyond the DYI, living room approach and make a a real TV show for Substack, like the one that’s produced at the Ed Sullivan Theater, the one with a live band, a big writing staff and such? A show that would cost tens of millions to produce.

Double or triple Acosta’s numbers, and you’re still a far cry from double digit millions. Would I pay $20 a month to get this kind of network TV show delivered to my inbox on a daily basis? That would be a big no.

YouTube

But would I tune in to watch Colbert on YouTube? The more important question: would Colbert’s fans tune in to the free, ad-supported channel to watch him? Without question.

He already has 10 million subscribers to the Late Show YouTube channel, but more important are the views. His monologues average 1-2 million views, which could generate about $700,000 yearly in ad revenue. Can you launch a talk show on YouTube with the production chops of what Colbert is used to on that kind of money?

No. But he can cut his own deal with YouTube and sell advertising on his own, get a brand sponsor, perhaps work out a deal with a partner like Siruis XM. Beyond the 200 staffers losing their jobs at the Late Show, the other big hit is to Hollywood, which needs shows like the Late Show to plug their new movies and TV shows. I could see a studio consortium swooping in to support a Colbert YouTube show financially. (And pressure to get every interview to go viral!)

Podcasting

This is where former late night host Conan O’Brien turned to after his talk show show ended on TBS. He began podcasting, with the “Conan Needs a Friend” show in 2018. Little was expected of this little dabble to keep his name out there, but the pod ended up reviving his career, generating hundreds of millions of downloads.

It did so well, the Motion Picture Academy came calling, and asked O’Brien to host the 2025 Academy Awards. And to come back for next year too.

(Colbert has a podcast, technically, but it’s just an audio version of the TV show.)

In a perfect world, I’d love to see Netflix come in and offer to take the Late Show now—why wait? If CBS didn’t like how much it costs to produce his show, why not let him leave early?

But that’s probably not going to happen. And if Netflix was truly interested, they’ve have to figure out a way to present the streaming version of the show invented in the 1950s that really hasn’t changed beyond jokes, chat and a song or two.

Meanwhile, where have the other former talk show hosts gone?

Trevor Noah, formerly of the Daily Show, is podcasting and doing live gigs at casinos and theaters. Former Tonight Show host Jay Leno still does 200 dates yearly, as well as his classic car video show, which was canceled by CNBC in 2022. It’s now exclusively on YouTube, where he has 3.8 million subscribers. Most of the new episodes average 200,000 views.

Beyond the Netflix show, Letterman has a YouTube show (800,000 subscribers) that primarily shows clips from the old CBS show, and he occasionally pops in with new commentary as well. James Corden, who hosted the CBS Late Late Show until 2023, is now primarily acting, and will be on Broadway in a revival of the show Art, which opens in September.

Colbert is a great actor who reveres Broadway. Maybe he’ll return to his frst love? Don’t forget to vote the poll—I’d love to get your thoughts on what’s next for him.

Speaking of sudden closures, in Los Angeles, the restaurant that invented the French Dip sandwich 117 years ago, Cole’s, is closing in August, due to declining sales and an absolute awful neighborhood full of people spread out on the grounds of the sidewalk, often engaging in drug use.

Meanwhile, rival Philippe’s is still at it, and in a better neighborhood with a parking lot. We stopped by there last week for one of their classic sandwiches. Really sad about Cole’s however, and I wish LA officials would use it as a wake up call to clean up Skid Row.

That’s as political as I want to get for today. Support your favorite local restaurant before it’s too late, and if you’re a Colbert fan, like I am, welcome him to whatever new format he chooses to go to.

Jeff